PRESIDENT OF GIOC Co9eneratwn, 'Waste recpfi:·. ANNEX Reference values tor Member States' national indicative targets tor the contribution of electricity produced fromrenewable energy sources to gross electricity consumption by 201 O (*) This Annex gives reference values for !he fixing of national indicative targets for electricity produced from renewable energy sources ('RES-E'), as referred !o in Article 3(2): RES-E TWh 1997 (.,) Bclgiuııı 0,86 Dcnıııark 3,21 Germany 24,91 Greccc 3,94 Spain 37,15 France 66,00 lreland 0,84 ltaly 46,46 Luxeıııbourg 0,14 Netherlands 3,45 Austıia 39,05 Ponugal 14,30 Finland 19,03 Sweden 72,03 Uniıed Kingdom 7,04 Communiıy 338,41 (") in taking into account the reference values set out in this Annex, Member States make the necessary assumplion that the State aid gu i delines far environmental protection allow for the existence of nalional support schemes for the promotion of electricity produced from renewabl e energy sources (..) Dala refer to the national production of RES·E in 1997. (...) The percenlage contribut i ons of RES-E in 1997 and 2010 a,e based on the national product i on of RES-E divided by the gross national e!ectricity consumption. in the case of intemal irade of RES-E (wilh recognised certification or origin registered) the calculation of these percentages will influence 2010 fıgures by Member State but not the Community total. ('..") Rounded figure resulting from the reference values above. (1) ltaly states that 22 % would be a rea1ist i c figure, on the assumption that in 2010 gross nat i onal electricity consumption will be 340 TWh. When taking into accounı the reference values sel out in this Annex, ltaly has assumed that gross nat i onal electrici ty product i on from renewab!e energy sources will attain up ıo 76 TWh in 2010. This figure includes the contribution of lhe non-bto degradable fract i on of municipa l and indusırial wasıe used in compliance with Community legisfation on waste management. in this respect. the capability ıo reach the indicative target as referred to in this Annex, is contingent, inter alia, upon the elfective level of the national demand for electric energy in 201 O. (2) Taking into account the indicative reference values set out in this Annex. Luxembourg takes the view ıtıat ıtıe objective set for 2010 can be achieved only if: -total electricity consumption in 2010 does not exceed that of 1997, -wind-generaled electricity can be multiplied by a facıor of 15, - biogas-generated electricily can be multiplied by a factor of 208, -electricity produced from the only municipal wasle incl neraıor in Luxembourg. wtıich in 1997 accounted tor ha l f the electricity produced from renewable energy sources, can be laken into accounl in its entirety, -photovo l taically generated electrici ty can be raised ı o 80 GWh, and in sa faras the above points can be achieved from the technfcal standpoint in the time allowed. in the absence of aıural resources, an additional increase in e l ectricity generated by hydroetectric power stations is ruled out (3) Austria sıates !hat 78,1 % would be a realist i c figure, on the assumption that in 2010 gross national electricity consumption will be 56, 1 TWh. Due to the facı !hat ttıe production of eıectricity from renewable sources is highly dependent on hydropower and therefore on ıtıe annual rainfall, lhe figures for 1997 and 2010 should be calculaled on a long-range model based on hydro!ogic and climatic condilions RES-E % 1997 (,.') RES-E % 201 O ("') 1,1 6,0 8.7 29,0 4,5 12,5 8,6 20,1 19,9 29.4 15,0 21,0 3,6 13,2 16,0 25,0 (') 2,1 5,7 (') 3,5 9,0 70,0 78,1 (') 38,5 39,0 (') 24,7 31,5 (') 49,1 60,0 (') 1,7 10,0 13,9 % 22 % (*'*') (4) Portugal. when taking into account the reference values, set out in this Annex, states ıtıat ıo maintain the 1997 share of electricity produced from renewable sources as an indicative target for 2010 it was assumed lhat - it will be possible to conıinue the national eıectricity plan building new tıydro capacity tıigher than 10 MW, -other renewable capacily, only possible with financ i al sıaıe aid, wi ll increase at an annuaı rate e i gtıı times higher than has occurred recently. These assumpt ions imply thaı new capaciıy far produc i ng eıectr i cily from renewable sources, excluding large hydro, wi ll increase at a raıe twi ce as higtı as the rate of increase of gross national eıectricity consumption. (5) ln the Finnish action plan for renewabte energy sources, objectives are set for the volume ofrenewable energy sources used in 2010. These object i ves have been set on ıtıe basis of extensive background stud i es. The action plan was approved within iM Government in October 1999. According to ıtıe Finnish action plan, the share of eıectricity produced from renewable energy sources by 2010 would be 31 %. Ttıis ind i cative ıarget is very ambitious and its realisation would require extensive promotion measures in Finland (6) When taking into accounı lhe reference values set out in !his Annex, Sweden notes ıtıaı the possibility of reaching the target is h i ghly dependent upon climatic facıors tıeavily affecting the level of hydropower production, in particular varialions in pluvtOmetry, timing of rainfall during ttıe year and inflow. Ttıe electr i city produced from hydropower can vary substantially. During xtremety dry years production may amount to 51 TWh, whereas in wet years it could amount to 78 TWh. The figure far 1997 should thus be calculated wi th a tong-range model based on scienlific facts on hydrology and climatic change. it is a generally applied method in countries with important shares of hydro power product i on to use water inflow sıaıist i cs covering a time span of 30 ıo 60 years. Ttıus, according to ıtıe Swedish mettıodology and based on conditions during the period 1950-1999, correcting for differences in total hydropower production capacity and inflow over the years, average hydropower product ion amounıs t o 64 TWh wh i ch corresponds to a figure for 1997 of 46 %, and in !his context Sweden considers 52 % to be a more realislic figure for 2010. Furthermore, the ability of Sweden to achieve the targel is l i mited by ıtıe facı !hat the remain!ng unexploited r i vers are protected by ıaw. Moreover, the ability of Sweden to reach the target is tıeavily contingent upon: - lhe expansion of combined heat and power (CHP) depending on population density, demand fOf" heat and techno l ogy developmenı, in particular for black liquor gasification. and - auttıorisat i on for wind power plants in accordance wi th nationat laws, public accepıance, ıechnology development and expansion of grids. ECOGENERATION WORLD 61
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