46 MAKALE/ ARTICLE to control. Just as important, it is now established that electricity has better productivity in many applications than most other energy forms. Ali this led to the wider utilization of electricity and its replacement of other torms of energy in many uses. Demand tor electricity is now growing globaliy at a rate higher than that of economic growth and in many countries, at almost 1 .5-2 times that of demand tor primary energy sources. The future is going to show a growing role of electricity as the preferred energy carrier. Growth in electricity use has been during recent years markedly higher than energy demand growth and almost identical to that of economic growth, approximately 3% annualiy. Of course such a trend cannot go on indefinitely. Electricity demand growth wili gradualiy slowly depart from economic growth as substitution and markets mature. However with the type of technologies and applications that already exist, there is nothing to stop electricity's advancement, nor it assuming a higher share of the energy market. Saturation of electricity use is not yet in sight, even in advanced economies where electricity production claims more than halt of the primary energy use. Other than tor the transport sector, electricity can satisfy most human energy requirements. it is expected that, by the middle of the 21 st century, almost 70 % of energy needs in some industrialized countries wili be satisfied by electricity (Gerholm). Electricity has become an important ingredient in human life. it is essential for modern living and business. lts interruption can incur major losses and create havoc in major cities and urban centres. lts disruption, even if transient, may cause tremendous inconvenience. Theretore, continuity of electricity supply is essential. Also, with the widespread use of computers and other voltage- and frequency-sensitive electronic equipment, the importance of the quality of supply has become evident. A significant proportion of investment, in the electricity supply industry (ESi), goes into the reserve generating plant, standby equipment and other redundant facilities needed to ensure the continuity and high quality of the supply. Electricity future demand in the near future, electricity demand growth is expected to match the growth of the world economy. This is expected to average around 2.5-3.0% annualiy during the next few years. The lnternational Energy Agency and the lnternational Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA, 2002) estimate that global electricity production wili increase at an annual average rate of 2.7-3.0% during the first decade of the 21 st century. Therefore it is expected that total electricity production in 201 O will amount to around 20,000 TWh and in 2020 to 25,880 TWh. Most of this growth is going to occur in developing countries, particularly in south-east Asia, a region that is enjoying a rapid economic growth. in 2030 global electricity production is expected to exceed 28,000 TWh. Halt of this amount wili be accounted tor by developing countries. Reform trends in the electricity supply industry Energy markets worldwide are currently in the midst of a fundamental transformation, as a result of technological change and policy reforms. The objectives of these reforms are: to enhance efficiency, to lower costs, to increase customer choice, to mobilize private investment, and to consolidate public finances. The mutually reinforcing policy instruments to achieve these objectives are the introduction of competition (often supported by regulation) and the introduction of private participation. As a large number of developed and developing countries have successfully restructured their electricity and gas markets, an international "besi practice" tor the design of the legal, regulatory, and institutional sector framework has emerged. it includes: - The corporation and restructuring of state-owned energy utilities. -The separation of regulatory and operational functions, the creation of a coherent regulatoryframework, and the establishment of an independent regulator to protect consumer interests and promote competition. - The vertical unbundling of the electricity industry into generation, transmission, distribution, and trade. -The introduction of competition in generation and trade and the regulation of monopolistic activities in transmission and distribution. - The promotion of private participation in investment and management through privatisation, concessions, and new entry. - The reduction of subsidies and tariff-rebalancing in order to bring prices in line with costs and to reduce market distortions. These trends greatly widened the scope tor financial management in the electricity supply industry, introducing to the industry new financial services like risk analysis and risk mitigation and electronic trading (World Bank, 2001 ). Future energy investments The IEA has recently carried out a comprehensive study on future energy investment over the period 2000-30. Accordingly, it the total investment required tor energy-supply infrastructure worldwide over the period 2001-30 is $ 16 tn, or $ 550 bn a year. This would be necessary to expand supply capacity and to replace existing and future supply facilities that wili be exhausted or become obsolete. The electricity sector wili absorb 60% of total energy investment, reaching almost $ 10 tn (WEIO 2003). Almost halt of total investment wili be needed in developing countries, with China alone requiring $ 2.3 tn over the next 30 years. Total investments in the oil and gas sectors wili each amount to more than $ 3 t, or around 1 9% of global energy investment. The coal industry requires only about $ 400 mm, or 2% of global energy investment (not including investment in coalfired power generation). The electricity sector dominates energy investment over the next 30 years, amounting to $ 1 O tn-$ 5 tn in transmission and distribution. Around 4,700 GW of generating capacity needs to be built worldwide during this period, a third in developing Asia and more than 2,000 GW in OECD countries. OECD countries will need to invest over $ 4 t during the Outlook period. Transition economies will need $ 700 bn, with more than halt of it going into the Russian power sector. Transition economies currently have excess capacity because electricity demand is stili below the level reached before the break-up of the tormer Soviet I ENERJİ & KOJENERASYON DÜNYASI ♦ "Kojenerasyon: Yüksek Verim, Temiz Çevre, Enerjide Yeniden Yapılanma"
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTcyMTY=