Union. However, existing power plants and networks are old and poorly maintained and will need extensive refurbishment to be able to provide reliable supplies to national or export markets. At present, developing countries account tor a little over a quarter of global electricity production. By 2030, this share is expected to rise to 44 % and these countries will be producing as much electricity as the OECD. To provide tor this level of increase, they will need to invest over $ 5 tn in electricity infrastructure. $ 2 tn of which will be in distribution networks. Experience has shown that the world cannot sustain such high rates of economic growth and increases in energy and oil demand. Growth is most likely to be more modest and so are future investment requirements. Future energy investment requirements are unlikely to exceed $ 15 tn over the period 2000-30. Most likely they will be between $ 13-$ 15 tn. Energy poverty Till this very day almost one third of the world population suffers from energy poverty. Exact number varies between 1.6-2 bn. This poverty involves lack of access to commercial fuels and electricity. There are other hundreds of millions who have only unreliable and intermittent supplies of electricity. Most of these people live in Sub-Saharan Africa, and South Asia. They depend mainly on biomass tor cooking and exist without access to electricity and correspondingly without access to the media and the rest of the world. Their efficiency in energy use is very low. Collecting biomass takes a lot of time and firing of biomass inside homes badly affects people's health. Supplying these people with commercial energy, including electricity, is most pressing tor them in attaining sustainable development and bettering their future. These low income populations have the world's highest population growth figures. Their numbers increase by almost 2.5 % annually. This means that each year there are 40-50 mm people who are added up to those suffering from energy poverty. Theretore the challenge is not only to overcome energy poverty but, more important, to prevent it from spreading. Unfortunately there are no serious programs to deal with energy poverty globally. Aims in this regard have to be modest at least in the medium term (10-20 years) and involve ensuring that numbers at least do not increase. This means that each year there is need to electrify and supply modest commercial energy access to at least 50 mm people who are now suffering from energy poverty, something like 1O mm homes annually. This is an essential program tor sustainable development, it is the least required, but stili it is not a modest program. What is of interest to us here is the fuels, technologies and costs. For cooking, the best commercial fuel may be LPG in containers which vary from 5-20 kg. LPG is a versatile fuel which is safe and easily transportable and tradable and is widely available from refineries and imports. it can easily be used also tor heating and many light industrial applications and suitable tor activities of low income communities (GFSE 2004). Provision of electricity is most important tor development. This MAKALE/ ARTICLE can be done by extending the national electricity networks into the unelectrified communities or build loca! central networks. This is very expensive and technologically it is also cumbersome because of the very low loads involved (mostly lighting) and also safety aspects. Due to costs it will be many decades betore such application matures and erases energy poverty. üne of the cheap and practical applications is small individual photo-voltaic systems. Each PV system is small (20-60 Watt) supplying a home with lighting, also very small other applications (TV, and in certain cases light refrigeration). Such system is almost free to run and require little maintenance. Costs can be as low as $ 600-$ 1 ,000 tor small installations. Small regional systems can also be arranged. With some subsidy tor installation and small funds financing arrangements many rural communities in the world can afford this. There are many ways also tor supplying energy. Small mobile diesel sets can provide both electricity and mechanical power (but will require diesel fuel supplies). Mini-hydro schemes (where there is hydraulic prospects) are also workable arrangements. Each community will have its special conditions and needs and correspondingly appropriate least cost technologies. Supplying annually 1 O mm homes through nation and regional networks and individual PV system means an investment with around $ 8 bn-$ 10 bn annually. An ambitious program to end energy poverty over 30-40 years entails an annual investment of at least twice as much, i. e. $ 20 bn annually. The IEA estimates that by 2030 there will stili be 1.4 bn people without access to electricity. To completely end energy poverty there is need to invest a further $ 665 bn over the next 30 years. These are realistic figures, the aim is untortunately unattainable. References Campbell, C.J. and J.H. Laherrere, 1998. "The End of cheap oil". Scientific American 278: 60-65. EEn ini, 2004. "EEnergy lntormer", February 2004. ExxonMobil. "A Report on Energy Trends, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Alternative Energy", 2004. FEEM. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Newsletter 2/2003. Gerholm, T R 1991. "Electricity in Sweden-Forecast to the year 2050", Vattenfal, Sweden. GFSE, 2004. Global Forum tor Sustainable Energy, Vienna, 2004. IAEA. "Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates tor the Period up to 2020", Vienna. IEA (WEIO), 2003. World Energy lnvestment Outlook, IEA, Paris. IIASA. Energy Perspectives, Vienna, 1998. Khatib, H. Economic Evaluation of Projects in the Electricity S M u it p c p h ly lndustry, 2003. ell, J.V. 1997. Will Western Europe Face an Energy Shortage? Strasbourg: Energy Council of France. USGS. United States & Geological Survey, Oil Resources, 2000.WEA. World Energy Assessment, UNDP, New York, 2000. WEC. Survey of Energy Resources, London, 1998. WEC. Drivers of the Energy Scene, London, 2004. WEO. lnternational Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2002, WPa o r r is ld , 2 B 0 a 0 n 2 k . . "The Development of Electricity Markets in the Euro Mediterranean Area", Technical Paper 491, 2001. Dr Hisham al-Khatib is Vice-Chairman of the World Energy Council, "Kojenerasyon: Yüksek Verim, Temiz Çevre, Enerjide Yeniden Yapılanma" • ENERJİ & KOJENERASYON DÜNYASI I 47
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTcyMTY=