The energy one-way bet There is an inevitability about the growth of cogeneration and decentralized energy. As limits to the fossil fuel resource become established and prices begin to rise, as system security starts to be important, as climate change starts to reveal itself, and as consumers demand higher reliability, the advantages of locally produced, highefficiency energy become irresistible, as Michael Brown contends. Can you predict the future? Of course not, nobody can. Not even on energy issues? No, certainly not - the energy sector today is more complicated and uncertain than ever. Even the pricey projections of the world's top consultants are rarely right. There is, however, a one-way bet that is impossible to imagine not coming about. it is a challenge that has been staring at us in the face far 30 years and yet has not been addressed in any significant way whatsoever. it is a challenge that represents the fparuonmdoatteiocnleoafnthaendwoerfkficoief nthteonW- orld Alliance far Decentralized Energy (WADE) to site generation. it is a concept that is so obvious and important, yet, perversely, it has been neglected by policymakers and energy companies far decades. Like the wind, it's always !here but we never hear it because we don't listen; like a handsome picture hanging on the wall far years, but·we never see it because we no longer look. The efficient conversion and use of energy has always been the Cinderella of energy policy. Unexciting, drab, easy to ignore. There has been little incentive to implement it because energy has been relatively cheap and because the role of energy producers and suppliers has been to seli as much of it as possible. The one-way bet is that this will change. it will change because !here is a rapidly c d o riv nv e e r rging range of global s that have a common bneotetdomto-luine - the imperative se energy more er ef fci co igenni tzl yi n, gt hteh ai mt tphoer tcal en caen eo f st energy supplied is the energy that is not used. lndeed, even the drivers are obvious - those assessed in this article are not Rtntw�•bk>mau& Own ı.ısoot exactly novel. But the Figure 1. Sankey diagram tor the world, 2002. implications are dramatic. Source: WADE 2003 {dala derived from lnternationaı Energy Agency) 50 World 100 2003 by .,•• 40 30 20 ,o 11 UllllMtllUU7N♦ltJ ııo 60 40 20 o ■ World NorthAmerica ■ S. & Cenıral Ameriea ■ Europe & Euraıia ■ Middle Eaıı ■ Africa ■ Aıia Pacirıc Figure 2. Oil reserves-to-production (r/p) ratios. Source: Annual Statistical Review of Energy, 2004, BP CHP, on-site renewable energy and energy recycling are the three cornerstones of WADE's research and advocacy programmes. These are high-efficiency solutions that recover heat and substantially reduce network losses. A glance at Figure e1 l,eactSricaintykey diagram far the worldwide sector, highlights the potential of these three decentralized energy (DE) solutions. ♦ "Kojenerasyon: Yüksek Verim, Temiz Çevre, Enerjide Yeniden Yapılanma"
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