it reveals the great bul k of energy that is lost in the process of conversion, transmission and supply to the end consumer. According to a WADE analysis of data from the l nternational Energy Agency, waste of energy from the worldwide electricity system is around 67% - that's two thirds. The picture is very similar tor virtually al l other countries. Most of the losses are from central thermal plants that cannot recover and use the waste heat. Considerable losses also arise from transmission of the energy from producer to consumer. To grasp the mind-boggling scale of the wastage, consider this: the energy lost in the worldwide electricity system is equivalent to the total energy consumed by the worldwide transportation sector. Madness, isn't it? Whi le the rationale tor central generation has been sound in the past, there is no longer any technical or economic justification to proceed down the same path in the future. Nor should we for 70 Woı1d 300 2003 byorea 80 250 60 200 40 160 30 20 100 10 60 o e1u•ın•t1n•t1ttoı tı ■ Woıld Nonh Ameıica S. & Centrol Americo ■ Europe & Eurosio ■ Middlo Eest ■ Africo ■ Atio Pocifie Figure 3. Natura! gas reserves-to-production (r/p) ratios. Source: Annual Statistical Review of Energy, 2004, BP a transformation oEtnheerrgyreasons. eshffyicciehnicy, the ld that ei gvneorryeodn et o hr a3s0 yt oe at rri sp , ui ss aubposuot that, finally, we do on ctea kaen dn ot ot ircael l. wT ha i ys bi se ta aonnde trheeasseo nasr ewthhye. of the global energy balance We waste energy because it has been cheap. We are profligate with anything that has little or no value, that is in abundance. For decades, energy has been abundant; but now, at the very time that oil and gas reserves are beginning to look finite, global demand is ramping ahead with growing acceleration. Figures 2-3, taken from the 2004 edition of the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, show recent trends in reserves-to-production ratios tor oil and gas. Since 1989, the ratio tor oi l has been in decl ine. For gas, such a trend is more difficult to identify, and the short-to medium-term outlook tor gas supply worldwide looks comtortable. Regionally, however, the story is different and the country that looks dramatically exposed is the US. Both charts break down the ratios on a regional basis, and in each case, the region with the lowest ratio is North America. Strip out Canada and the US MAKALE / ARTICLE position is bleaker stil i. Europe, including Russia, is a little better off tor oi l and much better off tor gas. However, if Russia is excl uded, it's bleak in Europe, too. The greater resilience of an electricity system based on DE is increasingly well understood On the demand side, the gas producers and LNG terminal developers are going to have to keep hard at it to meet projected c g o ro n w su th m , p w t h io ic n h disoounb course to le by 2po0w30e,rwith generation ..... 4000 3600 3000 2500 2000 , ... ■ Rooidenılol'M..ıc. ■ lndut<,y Tr•MPOrt ■ Powtr gtn.r.ıion c .. ıo-llctt,ld taking the lion's 1000 !500 ■ 0U-rMCtor9 sFhi gaur ree - 4s. e e Demand in Figure 4. World natura! gas demand by sector, 1980-2030. China is projected to increase by over 500% by 2030. Source: lnternational Energy Agency, 2002 in short, oil and gas reserves are looking more finite than ever and the demand tor both is becoming increasingly insatiable. The non-producing regions - the US, Europe, China, Japan - wil l compete tor supply. Prices tor both will increase further. Oil and gas wi ll therefore be used more efficiently. A one-way bet. terror and war The international security outlook is grim. lf you live in New Zealand, Tahiti or the Antarctic you may not think so - but if you l ive in North America or Europe, then you would be more l ikely taoccbuesatowmaered otof tthhee wtharernaitnsg. Aofs'ianerveistaidbent of the U K , 1 am le' terrorist attack. Another one-way bet? Who would dare say not? The greater resilience of an electricity system based on DE is increasingly well understood. What should be at least as well recognized is the resilience provided by much higher energy efficiency. A country or region subjected to security risk or attack wil l have major stress imposed on vital infrastructural services and supplies. A en m e o rg n y g w th i ese, ll be pb ea cr aamu soeu nwt e, al l need it all the D tsi u m is p e r p u . ption to ly is tough tor all, but will be less su os ei fd eenfef i rcgi ey ni ts ly. 7 7 ■ Asia Pacific North America ■ Afrlco S. and Cenral America ■ Europe and Eur"iıı ■ Middle E•ı 72 Figure 5. Proved oil reserves at end of 2003. Source: Annual Statistical Review of Energy, 2004, BP "Kojenerasyon: Yüksek Verim, Temiz Çevre, Enerjide Yeniden Yapılanma" ♦ ENERJİ & KOJENEAASYON DÜNYASI I 49
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