36 GÜNCEL/ AGENDA in April 2003, the BTC consortium criticized Turkey's state natura! gas and pipeline company BOTAS tor bureaucratic delays on the project, and called tor the company to be excluded. Completion of BTC currently is expected sometime in early 2005. Finaneing arrangements tor the pi peline were finalized in February 2004, with international banks and other organizations loaning $2.6 billion tor the projeet. Turkey is expected to earn billions of dollars in transit revenues from the pipeline once it opens. Refining/Downstream Turkey has refining eapaeity of 802,275 bbl/d at 7 refineries. Refining and other downstream operations in Turkey are dominated by partly-state-owned company Tupras, which has tour main refining complexes: Batman in the southeast, Aliaga near lzmir, lzmit near lstanbul (the country's largest refinery, damaged during the August 1999 earthquake), and the Central Anatolian Refinery at Kirikkale near Ankara. in 2002, Tupras' share of the Turkish fuels and lubrieants market was around 78%, with other major retailers ineluding BP, ExxonMobil, TotalFinaElf, Agip, and ConocoPhillips. Tupras is planning a fifth refinery -- a $700-$800 million faeility near Yarimea in western Turkey -- to be eompleted by 2007. Tupras hasa modernization program designed to switeh output at its refineries towards lighter produets and to meet European standards. Turkey's sole private refinery is Atas, with a capacity of 88,000 bbl/d, located near Mersin on the Mediterranean coast, a joint venture of Mobil (51 %), Shell (27%), BP Amoco (17%), and loca! company Marmara Petrol ve Rafineri isleri AS (5%). NATURAL GAS in 2003, the Turkish power seetor aeeounted tor about 65% of total Turkish gas demand, with the industrial and residential seetors accounting tor 19% and 14%, respeetively (fertilizer production took the remaining 2%). Prior to Turkey's severe economic problems (plus price deregulation moves) in 2001, Turkish natura! gas demand had been projected to increase very rapidly in coming years, with the prime consumers expected to be natural-gas-fired electric power plants and industrial users. Now, however, state natura! gas and pipeline company BOTAS has revised its natura! gas demand growth projections down sharply based on Turkey's economic problems, from about 1. 6 trillion cubic feet (Tef) in 2005 to under 0.9 Tef in that year, a 45% downward revision (but stili higher than EIA's forecast - see graph). Many analysts now believe that, given lower Turkish natura! gas consumption forecasts, only one of the main import options under development (i.e., Blue Stream, Trans-Caspian Pipeline - TCP, Shah Deniz) -- can be supported tor some time. it has been estimated that Turkey's "take-or-pay" gas eontraets will outstrip the eountry's gas demand over the next 2-3 years by 9%-13%, reaching as high as 20% by later in the deeade. This sharp downward revision in Turkey's projected natura! gas demand could have significant repercussions, since Turkey already has signed contracts tor far more natura! gas than it is expected to need. To date, Turkey has signed deals tor around 1.8 Tef per year of natural gas imports in 2010, more than 25% above the BOTASforeeast tor Turkish gas eonsumption (1.4 Tef) in that year. Of this total, over 25% is already eoming from Russia via Bulgaria (the "Progress Pipeline"), 11% from ıran, and 11 % from Algeria and Nigeria eombined in the form Natural gas is Turkey's preferred fuel for new power plant capacity for several reasons: environmental (gas is less polluting than coal, lignite, or oil); geographic (Turkey is located near to huge amounts of gas in the Middle East and Central Asia); economic (Turkey could offset part of its energy import bil i through transit fees it could charge for oil and gas shipments across its territory); and political (Turkey is seeking to strengthen relations with Caspian and Central Asian countries, several of which are potentially large gas exporters). of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Turkey has one 1 12-Bcf/year capacity LNG terminal, adjacent to the existing Marmara Ereglisi combined cycle gas turbine power station. By 201 O, over 30% of Turkey's gas imports are to be supplied from Russia via the Black Sea (see "Blue Stream" below), more than 25% from Russia via Bulgaria, nearly 20% from ıran, about 1 3% from Azerbaijan, and the remainderfrom Algeria and Nigeria. Under the "take-or-pay" provisions of natura! gas supply contracts with countries like ıran and Russia, Turkey theoretically could be torced to pay cash penalties of up to $1 billion per year it it fails to purchase contracted gas. in this context, Turkish energy officials have discussed the possibility of storing surplus natura! gas in underwater depots beneath the Sea of Marmara or under the Salt Lake (Tuz Golu) in central Anatolia. COAL Turkey has hard coal (anthraeite and bituminous) reserves of around 1.1 billion short tons, plus lignite reserves around 8 billion short tons. Around 40% of Turkey's lignite is located in the Afsin-Elbistan basin of southeastern Anatolia, while hard coal is mineci only in one location -- the Zonguldak basin of northwestern Turkey. Turkey's state-owned coal company, TTK, produces, processes, and distributes hard coal, while Turkish Coal Enterprises produces most of Turkey's lignite. in addition, Turkey's Electricity Generating Authority produces lignite tor three power plants, Between 1990 and 2000, the number of workers in Turkey's coal sector teli from 63,993 to 35,665. Turkish coal, which is used mainly tor power generation, is generally of poor quality and highly polluting. ELECTRIC POWER Prior to Turkey's economic difficulties in 2001 , projections by Turkey's Electricity Generating and Transmission Corporation (TEAS), a public company which owns and operates 15 thermal and 30 hydroelectric plants generating 91 % of Turkey's electricity, had indicated that rapid growth in electricity consumption would continue over the next 15 years. Now, though, power demand growth looks much weaker, with demand hit hard by Turkey's 2001 economic crisis, and with a surplus of generating capacity tor the time being. 1 ENERJ i & KOJENERASYON DÜNYASI ♦ "Kojenerasyon: Yüksek Verim, Temiz Çevre, Enerjide Yeniden Yapılanma"
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