Much of the growth in energy demand among the non-OECD economies occurs in non-OECD Asia, which includes China and lndia; demand in the region nearly triples over the projection period Total primary energy consumption in the non-OECD countries grows at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent between 2003 and 2030. in contrast, for the OECD-with its more mature energy-consuming nations-energy use grows at a much slower average rate of 1.0 percent per year over the same period. The KWES2006 reference case projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all sources over the next two and one-half decades. Fossil fuels continue to supply much of the increment in marketed energy use worldwide throughout the projections. Oil remains the dominant energy source over the projection period, but its share of total world energy consumption declines from 38 percent in 2003 to 33 percent in 2030, largely in response to higher world oil prices in this year's outlook, which dampen oil demand in the mid-term. Worldwide oil consumption rises from 80 million barrels per day in 2003 to 98 million barrels per day in 2015 and then to 118 million barrels per day in 2030. The KWES2006 projection for oil demand in 2025 is 8 million barrels lower than the 119 million barrels per day projected in lası year's outlook, which extended only to 2025. Worldwide, transportation and industry are the major growth sectors tor oil demand. On a global basis, the transportation sector-where !here are currently no alternative fuels that compete widely with oil-accounts for about one-half of the total projected increase in oil use between 2003 and 2030, with the industrial sector accounting tor another 39 percent of the incremental demand. The higher world oil price path in the KWES2006 also affects natural gas markets. For many years, the IEO has projected that natural gas would be the fastest growing energy source in the mid-term; however, higher natural gas prices in KWES2006 make coal more cost-competitive, especially in the electric power sector, and as a resul! natural gas use and coal use increase at similar rates. Natura! gas demand rises by an average of 2.4 percent per year over the 2003 to 2030 period and coal use by an average of 2.5 percent per year. Total world natural gas consumption rises from 95 trillion cubic feet in 2003 to 134 trillion cubic feet in 2015 and 182 trillion cubic feet in 2030. The industrial sector remains the most important end-use consumer for natural gas worldwide, accounting for 52 percent of the total growth in natural gas use in the projections; however, natural gas also remains an important energy source in the electric power sector, particularly as a fuel for new generating capacity. The electric power sector accounts for 39 percent of the increase in global natural gas demand over the 2003 to 2030 period, although the higher price path GÜNCEL / ACTUEL in KWES2006 leads to a slower growth rate for natural gas consumption in the electricity generation sector than was projected in JEO2005. Natural gas stili is seen as a desirable option for electric power in many parts of the world, given its efficiency relative to other energy sources and its low carbon content relative to other fossil fuels, making it a more attractive choice for countries interested in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Coal use worldwide increases by 2.4 billion short tons between 2003 and 2015 and by another 2.7 billion short tons between 2015 and 2030. in this year's outlook for coal, nearly all regions of the world show some increase in coal use, except for Japan. in Japan, the electricity sector continues to be dominated by natural gas and nuclear power generation. in addition, with its population growing more slowly, Japan's electricity demand is likely to grow slowly, so that new coal-fired capacity additions are unlikely to be needed. Consequently, coal's share of total energy use rises from 24 percent in 2003 to 27 percent in 2030, and world coal consumption continues to exceed world natural gas consumption throughout the projections. The largest increases in coal use worldwide are projected for China and lndia, where coal supplies are plentiful. Together, China and lndia account for 86 percent of the rise in non-OECD coal use and 70 percent of the total world increase in coal demand over the projection period. Net electricity consumption more than doubles between 2003 and 2030, from 14,781 billion kilowatthours to 30,116 billion kilowatthours. The strongest growth in net electricity consumption is projected for the non-OECD economies, averaging 3.9 percent per year in the KWES2006 reference case. Robust economic growth in many of the non-OECD countries is expected to boost demand for electricity to run newly purchased home appliances for air conditioning, cooking, space and water heating, and refrigeration. Although expanding use of home appliances and other electronic devices also results in increased demand for electricity in the OECD nations, their more mature infrastructures and slower rates of population expansion resul! in slower growth for total net electricity consumption, averaging 1.5 percent per year over the projection horizon. Natural gas and renewable energy sources are the only fuels expected to increase their shares of total world electricity generation in the projections. Worldwide, consumption of electricity generated from nuclear power increases from 2,523 billion kilowatthours in 2003 to 2,940 billion kilowatthours in 2015 and 3,299 billion kilowatthours in 2030. Higher fossil fuel prices and the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol are expected to improve prospects for new nuclear power capacity over the projection period, and the world nuclear generation projections include new construction of nuclear plants in several countries. 41 ENERJi DÜNYASI EKiM 2006 53
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