GÜNCEL Overview to World Energy Outlook 2006 lnternational Energy Agency - IEA T he world is facing twin energy-related threats: that of not having adequate and secure supplies of energy at affordable prices and that of environmental harm caused by consuming too much of it. Soaring energy prices and recent geopolitical events have reminded us ofthe essential role affordable energy plays in economic growth and human development, and of the vulnerability of the global energy system to supply disruptions. Safeguarding energy supplies is once again at the top ofthe international policy agenda. Yet th� current pattern of energy supply carries the threat of severe and irreversible environmental damage - including changes in global climate. Reconciling the goals of energy security and environmental protection requires strong and coordinated government action and public support. The need to curb the growth in fossil-energy demand, to increase geographic and fuel-supply diversity and to mitigate climate-destabilising emissions is more urgent than ever. G8 leaders, meeting with the leaders of several major developing countries and heads of international organisations - including the lnternational Energy Agency - at Gleneagles inJuly 2005 and in St. Petersburg in July 2006 called on the IEA to "advise on alternative energy scenarios and strategies aimed at a clean, clever and competitive energy future". This year's Outlook responds to that request. it confırms that fossil-fuel demand and trade flows, and greenhouse-gas emissions would follow their current unsustainable paths through to 2030 in the absence of new government action - the underlying premise of our Reference Scenario. it also demonstrates, in an Alternative Policy Scenario, that a package of policies and measures that countries around the world are considering would, if implemented, significantly reduce the rate of i ncrease in demand and emissions. lmportantly, the economic cost of these policies would be more than outweighed by the economic benefits that would come from using and producing energy more efficiently. Fossil energy wi/1 remain dominant to 2030 Global primary energy demand in the Reference Scenario is projected to increase by just over one-half between now and 2030 - H'-: ıaruınııcu unu unu tllırıını PIUH: ııau t•ıt Ulı POF lı ıaltjtCt ll ıpıcınc rnırıctlHt tut r,■ıt ıu 111 aııııı ıııtrı,utıaı ne m■ı aıııı cuııııtıııı :ırc nall;ı-tc uıuı� il ttı!I■ in arıtıı/�nUUJ/Jrlclıı lttıl World Energy 0utıook 2006 an average annual rate of 1 .6%. Demand grows by more than one-quarter in the period to 20 1 5 alone. Over 70% ofthe increase in demand over the projection period comes from developing countries, with China alone accounting for 30%. Their economies and population grow much faster than in the OECD, shifting the centre ofgravity of global energy demand. Almost half of the increase in global primary energy use goes to generating electricity and one-fifth to meeting transport needs - almost entirely in the form of oil-based fuels. Globally, fossil fuels will remain the dominant source of energy to 2030 in both scenarios. in the ·ı ENERJi DÜNYASI OCAK 2007 • -::2:-:2::+=--=--:..:.....:..::.:.:._:__:_=--..:..:..:.:..:.....:----============- "Enerjide Sürdürülebilirlikve Küreselleşme: Verimlilik, Emisy?nlar, YeniPiyasa Oluşumlan"
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