Reference Scenario, they account for 83% of the overall increase in energy demand between 2004 and 2030. As a result, their share of world demand edges up, from 80% to 81 %. The share of oil drops, though oil remains the largest single fuel in the global energy mix in 2030. Global oil demand reaches 99 million barrels per day in 20 1 5 and 1 1 6 mb/d in 2030 - up from 84 mb/d in 2005. in contrast to WEO-2005, coal sees the biggest increase in demand in absolute terms, driven mainly by power generation. China and lndia account for almost four-fıfths of the incremental demand forcoal. it remains the second-largest primary fuel, its share in global demand increasing slightly. The share of natura! gas also rises, even though gas use grows less quickly than projected in the last Outlook, due to higher prices. Hydropower's share of primary energy use rises slightly, while that of nuclear power falls. The share of biomass falls marginally, as developing countries increasingly switch to using modern commercial energy, offsetting the growing use of biomass as feedstock for biofuels production and for power and heat generation. Non-hydro renewables -including wind, solar and geothermal -grow quickest, but from a small base. We have revised upwards our assumptions for oil prices in this Outlook, in the expectation that crude oil and refıned-product markets remain tight. Market fundamentals point to a modest easing of prices as new capacity comes on stream and demand growth slows. But new By 2030, the OECD as whole imports two-thirds of its oil needs in the Reference Scenario, compared with 56% today. Much of the additional imports come from the Middle East, along vulnerable maritime routes. geopolitical tensions or, worse, a major supply disruption could drive prices even higher. We assume the average IEA crude oil import price falls back to $47 per barrel in real terms in the early part of the next decade and then rises steadily through to 2030. Natural gas prices are assumed broadly to follow the trend in oil prices, because ofthe continuing widespread use of oil-price indexation in long-term gas supply contracts and because of inter-fuel competition. Coal prices are assumed to change proportionately less over time, but follow the direction of oil and gas prices. The threat to the world's energy security is real and growing Rising oil and gas demand, if unchecked, would accentuate the consuming countries' vulnerability to a severe supply disruption and resulting price shock. OECD and developingAsian countries become increasingly dependent on imports as their indigenous production fails to keep pace with demand. Non-OPEC production of conventional crude oil and natural gas liquids is set to peak within a decade. By 2030, the OECD as whole imports two-thirds of its oil needs in the Reference Scenario, compared with 56% today. Much of the additional imports come from the Middle East, alongvulnerable maritime routes. The concentration of oil production in a small group of countries with large reserves - notably Middle East OPEC members and Russia - will increase their market dominance and their ability to impose higher prices. An increasing share ofgas demand is also expected to be met by imports, via pipeline or in the form of liquefied natural gas from increasingly distant suppliers. The growing insensitivity of oil demand to price accentuates the potential impact on international oil prices ofa supply disruption. The share oftransport demand - which is price-inelastic relative to other energy services - in global oil consumption, is projected to rise in the Reference Scenario. As a result, oil demand becomes less and less responsive to movements in international crude oil prices. The corollary of this is that prices would fluctuate more than in the past in response to future short-term shifts in demand and supply. The cushioning effect ofsubsidiesto oil consumers on demand contributes to the insensitivity ofglobal oil demand to changes in international prices. Current subsidies on oil products in non-OECD countries are estimated at over $90 billion annually. Subsidies on all forms offinal energy outside the OECD amount to over $250 billion per year -equal to all the investment 1 ENERJi DÜNYASI OCAK 2007 A _24--J= ��:..:....:::.::.:.:.:,:::::,::e::.::::�::.:::__ -===========-- W "Enerjide Sürdürülebilirlik ve Küreselleşme: Verimlilik, Emisyonlar, Yeni Piyasa Oluşumlan"
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