needed in the power sector each year, on average, in those countries. Oil prices still matter to the economic health ofthe global economy. Although most oil-importing economies around the world have continued to grow strongly since 2002, they would have grown even more rapidly had the price of oil and other forms of energy not increased. in many importing countries, increases in the value of exports of non-energy commodities, the prices of which have also risen, have offset at least part of the impact of higher energy prices. The eventual impact of higher energy prices on macroeconomic prospects remains uncertain, partly because the effects of recent price increases have not fully worked their way through the economic system. There are growing signs of inflationary pressures, leading to higher interest rates. Most OECD countries have experienced a worsening of their current account balances, most obviously the United States. The recycling of petro-dollars may have helped to mitigate the increase in long-term interest rates, delaying the adverse impact on real incomes and output of higher energy prices. The lenger prices remain at current levels or the more they rise, the greater the threat to economic growth in importing countries. An oil-price shock caused by a sudden and severe supply disruption would be particularly damaging - for heavily indebted poor countries most of all. Will the investment come? Meeting the world's growing hunger for energy requires massive investment in energy-supply infrastructure. The Reference Scenario projections in this Outlook cali for cumulative investment of just over $20 trillion (in year-2005 dollars) over 2005-2030. This is around $3 trillion higher than in WEO-2005, mainly because of recent sharp increases in unit capital costs, especially in the oil and gas industry. The power sector accounts for 56% oftotal investment - or around two-thirds if investment in the supply chain to meet the fuel needs of powerstations is included. Oil investment - three-quarters ofwhich goes to the upstream - amounts to over $4 trillion in total over 2005-2030. Upstream investment needs are more sensitive to changes in decline rates at producing fıelds than to the rate of growth of demand for oil. More than half of all the energy investment needed worldwide is in developing countries, where demand and production increase most quickly. China alone needs to invest about $3. 7 trillion - 1 8% of the world total. There is no guarantee that all of the investment, needed, will be forthcoming. Government policies, geopolitical factors, unexpected changes in unit costs and prices, and new technology could all affect the opportunities and incentives for private and publicly-owned companies to invest in different parts of the various energy-supply chains. The investment decisions of the major oil- and gasproducing countries are of crucial importance, as they will increasingly affect the volume and cost of imports in the consuming countries. There are doubts, for example, about whether investment i n Russia's gas industry will be suffıcient even to maintain current export levels to Europe and to start exporting to Asia. The ability and willingness of major oil and gas producers to step up investment in order to meet rising global demand are particularly uncertain. Capital spending by the world's leading oil and gas companies increased sharply in nominal terms over the course ofthe fırst halfofthe current decade and, according to company plans, will rise further to 20 1 O. But the impact on new capacity of higher spending is being blunted by rising costs. Expressed in cost inflation-adjusted terms, investment in 2005 was only 5% above that in 2000. Planned upstream investment to 20 1 O is expected to boost slightly global spare crude oil production capacity. But capacity additions could be smaller on account of shortages of skilled personnel and equipment, regulatory delays, cost inflation, higher deciine rates at existing fıelds and geopolitics. lncreased capital spending on refıning is expected to raise throughput capacity by almost 8 mb/d by 201 O. Beyond the current decade, higher investment in real terms will be needed to maintain growth in upstream and downstream capacity. in a Deferred lnvestment 1, r ----=----=-===----=---------,.ı--- J � ENERJi DONYASI OCAK 20071 "Enerjide SOrdOnllebilirtik ve KOreselleşme: Vertmlilik, Emisyonlar,Yeni PlyasaOfuşumlan" 2 5
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