26 Case, lower OPEC crude oil production, partially offset by increased non-OPEC production, pushes oil prices up by one-third, trimming global oil demand by 7 mb/ d or 6%, in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario. On current energy trends, carbon-dioxide emissions will acce/erate Global energy-related carbon-dioxide (CO2) emissions increase by 55% between 2004 and 2030, or 1.7% per. year, in the Reference Scenario. They reach 40 gigatonnes in 2030, an increase of 1 4 Gt over the 2004 level. Power generation contributes half of the increase in global emissions over the projection period. Coal overtook oil in 2003 as the leading contributor to global energyrelated CO2 emissions and consolidates this position through to 2030. Emissions are projected to grow slightly faster than primary energy demand - reversing the trend of the last two-and-a-half decades - because the average carbon content of primary energy consumption increases. Developing countries account for over three-quarters of the increase in global CO2 emissions between 2004 and 2030 in this scenario. They overtake the OECD as the biggest emitter by soon after 20 1 O. The share of developing countries in world emissions rises from 39% in 2004 to over one-half by 2030. This increase is faster than that of their share in energy demand, 1 ENE RJ I DONYASI OCAK 2007 because their incremental energy use is more carbon-intensive than that of the OECD and transition economies. in general, the developing countries use proportionately more coal and less gas. China alone is responsible for about 39% of the rise in global emissions. China's emissions more than double between 2004 and 2030, driven by strong economic growth and heavy reliance on coal in power generation and industry. China overtakes the United States as the world's biggest emitter before 20 1 O. OtherAsian countries, notably lndia, also contribute heavily to the increase in global emissions. The per-capita emissions of non-OECD countries nonetheless remain well below those oftheOECD. Prompt government action can a/ter energy and emission trends The Reference Scenario trends described above are not set in stone. lndeed, governments may well take stronger action tosteerthe energy system onto a more sustainable path. in the Alternative Policy Scenario, the policies and measures that governments are currently considering aimed at enhancing energy security and mitigating CO2emissions are assumed to be implemented. This would result in signifıcantly slower growth in fossil-fuel demand, in oil and gas imports and in emissions. These interventions include efforts to improve effıciency in energy production and use, to increase reliance on nonfossil fuels and to sustain the domestic supply of oil and gas within net energy importing countries. World primary energy demand in 2030 is about 10% lower in the Alternative Policy Scenario than in the Reference Scenario - roughly equivalent to China's entire energy consumption today. Global demand grows, by 37% between 2004 and 2030, but more slowly: 1 .2% annuallyagainst 1 .6% in the Reference Scenario. The biggest energy savings in both absolute and percentage terms come from coal. The impact on energy demand ofnew policies is less marked in the fırst decade ofthe Outlook period, but far from negligible. The difference in global energy demand between the two scenarios in 20 1 5 is about 4%. in stark contrast with the Reference Scenario, OECD oil imports level off by around 20 1 5 and then begin to fall. Even so, all three OECD regions and developing Asia are more dependent on oil imports by the end of the projection period, though markedly less so than in the Reference Scenario. Global oil demand reaches 103 mb/d in 2030 in the Alternative Policy Scenario - an increase of 20 mb/d on the 2005 level but 1 3 mb/d less than in the Reference Scenario. Measures in the transport sector produce close to 60% of ali the oil savings in the Alternative Policy Scenario. More than twothirds come from more effıcient new vehicles. lncreased biofuels use and production, especially in Brazil, Europe and the United States, also helps reduce oil needs. Globally, gas demand and reliance on gas imports are also sharply reduced visa-vis the � "Enerjide Sürdürülebilirlik ve Küreselleşme: Verimlilik, Emisyonlar, Yeni Piyasa Oluşumlan"
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