Reference Scenario. Energy-related carbon-dioxide emissions are cut by 1.7 Gt, or 5%, in 2015 and by 6.3 Gt, or 1 6%, in 2030 relative to the Reference Scenario. The actions taken in the Alternative Policy Scenario cause emissions in the OECD and in the transition economies to stabilise and then dedine before 2030. Their emissions in 2030 are stili slightly higher than in 2004, but well below the Reference Scenario level. Emissions in the European Union and Japan fail to below current levels. Emissions in developing regions carry on growing, but the rate of increase slows appreciably over the Outlook period compared with the Reference Scenario. Policies that encourage the more effıcient production and use of energy contribute almost 80% of the avoided CO2 emissions. The remainder comes from switching to low- and or zero-carbon fuels. More effıcient use of fuels, mainly through more efficient cars and trucks, accounts for almost 36% of the emissions saved. More efficient use ofelectricity in a wide range of applications, including lighting, air-conditioning, appliances and industrial motors, accounts for another 30%. More efficient energy production contributes 13%. Renewables and biofuels together yield another 1 2% and nuclearthe remaining 1 0%. The implementation of only a dozen policieswould result in nearly40%of avoided CO2 emissions by 2030. The policies that are most effective in reducing emissions also yield the biggest reductions in oil and gas imports. New policies and measures would pay for themselves in aggregate the new policies and measures analysed yield fınancial savings that far exceed the initial extra investment cost for consumers -a key result of the Alternative Policy Scenario. Cumulative investment in 2005-2030 along the energy chain -from the producer to the consumer - is $560 billion lower than in the Reference Scenario. lnvestment in end-use equipment and buildings is $2.4 trillion higher, but this is more than outweighed by the $3 trillion of investment that is avoided on the supply side. Over the same period, the cost of the fuel saved by consumers amounts to $8. I trillion, morethan offsetting the extra demand-side investments required to generate these savings. The changes in electricity-related investment brought about by the policies included in the Alternative . Policy Scenario yield particularly big savings. On average, an addiMore efficient energy production contributes 1 3%. Renewables and biofuels together yield another 12% and nuclear the remaining 1 0%. The implementation of only a dozen policies would result in nearly 40% of avoided CO2 emissions by 2030. tional dollar invested in more effıcient electrical equipment, appliances and buildings avoids more than two dollars in investment in electricity supply. This ratio is highest in non-OECD countries. Two-thirds ofthe additional demand-side capital spending is borne by consumers in OECD countries. The payback periods of the additional demand-side investments are very short, ranging from one to eight years. They are shortest in developing countries and for those polices introduced before 201 5. Nuclear power has renewed promise -if public concerns are met Nuclear power -a proven technology for baseload electricity generation -could mal<e a major contribution to reducing dependence on imported gas and curbing CO emissions. in the Reference Scenario, world nuclear power generating capacity increases from 368 GW in 2005 to 41 6 GW in 2030. But its share in the prim�ry energy mix stili falls, on the assumption that few new reactors are built and that several existing ones are retired. in the Alternative Policy Scenario, more favourable nuclear policies raise nuclear power generating capacity to 5 19 GW by 2030, so that its share in the energy mix rises. lnterest in building nuclear reactors has increased as a result of higher fossil-energy prices, which have made nuclear power relatively more competitive. New nuclear power plants could produce electricity at a cost of less than fıve � ENERJi OONYASI OCAK 20071 "Enerjide Sürdürülebilirlik ve Küreselleşme: Verimlilik, Emisyonlar, Yeni Piyasa Oluşumlan" 'W' --===========�---....::..:...--'-__:�....::..:...-1--2-7
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