independent power production spurs the construction of local ized, small - to mid-sized power generation units of up to 50 MW. At the low end of the power spectrum are the micro turbines and mini-turbines., gas turbine machines whose power outputs are 20 kW to about 450 kW. This new product group wi ll rapidly gai n i n importance over the coming years. Since power generation is movi ng increasingly towards the end-use as a result of industry deregulation, the ulti mate resul! will be that the old-line uti lities have more competition and less and less control over where the users draw their power from. Microturbines appear to be a near ideal solution for installation in private residences and in small businesses that need conti nues power at the lowest possible price. Even beyond these, new technologies are emerging. Most notably among such technologies are fuel cells, some of which have power outputs starti ng at 1 kW for residential use. For the decade through to 2010, Forecast lnternational projects that over 18 800 gas turbi ne machi nes (outside the microturbine/mi ni-turbi ne arena) will be built for electrical power generation, with those machines having a value in excess of US$364 billion. Of the 1 8 800 machi nes, General Electric is projected to have at least a 42% share of total units produced. We foresee gas turbi ne production reachi ng a peak in the year 2006, then dropping by about 10% through 201 O. However, we also expect that the total number of units produced i n 201 O will be 16% higher than those produced i n 2001 . SOME GENERAL COMMENTS Not too long ago, America real ized that it was runni ng out of electric power. With a growth i n the population, a several-fold increase in power-hungry electronics and a long cycle of hol summers and warm winters, demands on the providers of electric power have grown almost astronomically. The providers of electrical power had long believed that if we all practiced energy economy, they would not have to add new capacity in the form of power plants. However, energy shortages in Cal ifornia have forced brownouts, roll ing outages and, at the worst extreme, blackouts. Envi ronmental ists and others have campaigned agai nst new nuclear power planı construction and ECOGEllERATION WORLO upgrading/uprating of the current 1 00+ plants; power is being procured (when avai lable) from sources farther and farther away; and the conventional and seemi ngly always reliable hydroelectric power is not too effective if there is a meager snowfall in the winter. The overall power need now spans the gamut of generation, from baseload to peaki ng to stand-by. When the need becomes critical, new electrical power generation capacity can come from several sources: fossi l fuel-fi red generators, such as gas turbine machi nes (i ncluding microturbine and mini-turbi ne machi nes of under 200 kW) and diesels; hydroelectric; nuclear; solar; wind; from conventional power plants that burn coal, food waste and bagasse; and from other much more exotic means, such as geothermal, ocean currents and fuel cells. Fuel cells, despite the immense appeal of eli minati ng virtually all harmful emissions, are stili considered to be i n the demonstration stage, but we predict they will arrive i n large quantities from about 2008; wind power, whi le commercially available everywhere, its overall efficiency is about 50%, and we consider it expensive in the near term on a dollar-per-kWh basis; nuclear power plats and hydroelectric plants are very expensive and require a very long period of heari ngs, financing, approvals and construction; solar power is very appeal ing, but it's somewhat akin to wind-power - it is not avai lable everywhere, and can be expensive on a dollar-per-kWh basis. What's left? Well, not too much. Above the level of microturbines and mini-turbines whose efficiencies range from about 20-28%, those, which we consider to be true gas turbi ne machines, range i n power output from about 200 kW to the super-high-power machi nes of 250-350 MW. Today, gas turbi ne machines have simple-cycle efficiencies of at least 30%; some are approachi ng 45% in simple-cycle; and some are at 60% in combi ned cycle. Production of gas turbi ne machines above 200 kW for electrical power generation has followed a sine wave pattern i n the recent past; it ramped up to a then high in 1996, dropped sl ightly i n 1997, dropped more in 1998, and had left a hefty growth in 1 999 and 2000. We estimate that gas turbine machi ne production i n 1998 was just over 750 machi nes; production i n 2000 is estimated at just over 1200 machines. Looking solely at North America, production of gas turbine machines ranged from only 20 or so machines i n 1996 to about 600 machi nes in 2000. we see total worldwide production rising to about 2075 machines in 2006, di pping to about 1 875 machi nes in 201 O, and then droppi ng fora while unti l the new capacity/capacity increase si ne wave pattern takes effect. Also, at about that ti me, microturbines, mi ni-turbines and fuel cells will have become commonplace. The si ne wave should be stretched out in comparison to the previous wave. What have we seen i n the past? Whi le gas turbine machines continue to be ordered and fabricated for electrical power generation i n their normally intended end-use (continuous duty, stand-by duty and peaki ng duty) the lower-powered gas turbine machi nes, those up to about 3.5-4 MW, have traditionally been employed i n stand-by duty. As we move up the power spectrum, the shift i n normal use toward continuous duty becomes more noticeable at the power level of 20-30 MW. At the power level of about 120-1245 MW and larger, virtually all gas turbine machi nes ordered are intended for continuous generation duty.
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