Cogeııuatioıı, Was� recotıeJ'!]r,'{eıutfQıı.i/t,$ & Oıı.-sJk tjmtratiı>ıt That trend seems almost inviolate, and we expect it to continue tor the near term. Given the urgent need tor new baseload capacity as weli as tor current power planı capacity additions, at Forecast lnternational we believe !hat the worldwide demand tor !he latest, high technology gas turbine-based power plants wili resul! in !he increased production of !he super-large gas turbine machines, those of 180 MW and larger. Production of those could grow 2000 "'2 u 1500 ::ı ıı ., � 1000 ::, 500 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ■ 1 ı-- -- ı-, i 1.1 -· -� ı .· ı -- - .... - 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Year 1 ■125 MW+ , □50-124.99 MW ■20-49.99 MW ■10.0-19.99MW 1 !l 3.0-9.99 MW □ 200 kW-2.99 MW FJGURE 1. Unit production of gas turbines tor electrical power generation 2001-2010 from over 110 machines in 2001 to 200 machines per year in the 2009-201O period. Several regions and countries are likely to be the main procurers of these mega-machines including China, North Korea, the Middle East, and the South American nations. With combined-cycle instaliations approaching and just about touching 60% tor net planı efficiency ratings, we do not believe !hat gas turbine machines wili continue to gel larger and larger in terms of power output. With a gas turbine machine having a firing temperature of about 2400°F (1315°C), we were at about a 56% level in net planı efficiency in combined-cycle confıgurations; at about 2500°F (1370°C), we were at about a 57.2-57.3% net planı efficiency; and at about 2600°F (1430°C), we were very close to a 60% net plant efficiency. Any technological advances above that 60% level wili be smali, and incremental, and wili lake more time to be introduced - but !hey wili be introduced. What is left to accomplish with the gas turbine machine itself, we feel, falis into the areas of further improved combustion, more advanced heat-resistant alioys, improved metaliic or ceramicbased blade and vane coatings, more sophisticated cooling schemes, improved steam/water injection techniques and increased use of fuel preheating. it should be noted here !hat some advances, however, can lake their toli on !he gas turbine machines, actualiy placing the machines under even greater stress. A great concern with the newer technology machine is that early and often weli publicized failures can and have caused the OEMs (equipment manufacturers) to suffer in terms of cost, delays, and reputation. So, when the OEMs come out with another new product or product improvement, they do so under intense scrutiny. One facet of the gas turbine industry !hat we believe wili gain momentum is the use of 'used' gas turbines to satisfy an urgent requirement tor new peaking capacity. Using gas turbine machines fabricated tor other projects could be a viable option, as il would dramaticaliy shorten a project's development schedule. One example of !his scenario is a power planı in Georgia, which needed gas turbine generators tor operation in the summer of 2000. it bought three 50 Hz machines !hat had been operating in a power planı in Argentina; GE Aeroderivative and Package Services converted !he three machines from 50 Hz to 60 Hz operation. Another example is Colarado Springs Utilities, which, in order to get around the increasingly lengthening time from order to erection of new gas turbine machines, acquired two new GEBS Frame 6B machines !hat had been in storage tor about six years. What's going to happen with number of gas turbine manufacturers? The number of primary players in the gas turbine industry, while continualiy fluctuating, is likely to decrease. Streamlining of!he number of firms has already taken place. Siemens acquired the Westinghouse gas turbine line; AliiedSignal took over Honeyweli but has kept the Honeyweli name (the Vericor Power Systems joint venture with MTU has assumed the turbine machine-building responsibilities); Alstom has bought out the ABB Alstom entity; GE has absorbed the Stewart & Stevenson and Nuovo Pignone packaging operations, ali !he while dissociating itself from Dresser-Rand; and Rolis Royce acquired Aliison (though not too easily}. Among !he major, or near major, gas turbine manufacturers that are stili in existence are Pratt & Whitney Power Systems (PWPS), Fiat Avio and Honeyweli. And, as we write, GE is trying to acquire Honeyweli in a manner acceptable to ali parties in North America and Europe. Perhaps Fiat Avio and/or PWPS is being eyed as an acquisition; maybe PWPS or UTC wili buy Honeyweli. A LOOK AT THE COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT For the decade to 201 O, Forecast lnternational considers the toliowing to be key factors in the gas turbine-powered electrical generalion marketplace. Gas is the primary choice Natura! gas continues to be the fuel of choice tor new power generation applications worldwide, and we are seeing an increasing amount of old coal-fired plants being converted to burn natura! gas. The environmental advantages of natura! gas versus coal are overwhelming, and as such, it is not surprising that virtualiy ali new electric power generation facilities being built have specified natura! gas as their primary fuel (we should say here !hat CNG/LNG has also become a major first choice in some planı designs). And the 'boom' goes on The US will conlinue to witness dramatic, near astronomical growth in power generation capacity over the next few years. The rush of orders tor gas turbines is expected to be so high !hat, tor some gas turbine manufacturers, including GE, Siemens and UTC PWPS, their production lead-times tor select models wili continue to be two or three years. As tor the other parts of the world, the Asian region has yet to fuliy recover from the dismal conditions of 1997-98. Countries whose economies are in a growth stage, and further build-up wili come once deregulation is fuliy implemented. The tormer ECOGEIIERATION WORLD � 5 7
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