'Eastern European' market has yet to become as buoyant as expected a few years ago, but rebuilding and expansion of this region's power generation infrastructure will be truly formidable. Central and South America will be one of the 'silen! giants', in terms of market potential for power generation. Unquestionably ::hief among the countries in this region that need huge amounts )f new electrical generation are Brazil and Mexico. Efficiency improvements driving market Large industrial machines - 180 MW and above - are already xeaking the 38% simple-cycle efficiency mark. Natural gas-fired ::ombined cycle installations have net plant efficiencies 3pproaching, if not exceeding, the 60% mark. The recent wave )f 40-45 MW aeroderivative gas turbine machines has ,imple-cycle efficiencies quickly approaching 45%. Combined cycle plants rule fhe commercial acceptance of lndustrial Generation Combined :::yele (IGCC) is expected to grow, as fuel flexibility and 3nvironmental pressures become increasingly important issues Norldwide. Deregulation = competition = efficiency n both the US and a number of other countries worldwide, the 3lectricity industry, including power generation, is in the process )f being deregulated. This means that the responsibility for xoducing electricity is moving downstream to smaller and ,mailer units, in most cases to non-utility power generators. This rend also supports the emergence of the more and more micro urbines and mini-turbines as well as fuel cells. NUGs/lPPs )f prime importance to equipment firms serving the power Jeneration industry is the ability of non-utility generators and ndependent power producers (NUGs/lPPs) to offer a financially ıiable and highly reliable alternative to central station capacity. !\t the same time, retail and wholesale customers have become ncreasingly market-aware regarding the price and availability of jifferent power options. Reliability of power supply key in new market fhe infrastructure for the delivery of power from the producer to he consumers is being strained by the increased competition in he supply side of power. in most countries the networks have 101 been built with multiple producers in mind, and certainly not o accommodate the volumes being demanded year by year. )istributed power generation does alleviate some of the ransmission issues, bringing the production site closer to the md-user, but the network in most cases is stili going to need ·einforcement and rebuilding. Furthermore, the issues of nterconnecting IPPs to networks originally built for major utilities 3re yet to be fully resolved in countries that are undergoing leregulation. ::orporate consolidation :ı. number of primary players in the gas turbine industry are )eing reshuffled in order to improve their financial performance. 3treamlining of the corporate focus is being exercised across he board, with Westinghouse getting out of the power business n favor of Siemens, and more recently Honeywell, which took )Ver former AlliedSignal, distancing itself from gas turbines as i8 ECOGENERATION WORLD well (the Vericor joint venture with MTU has assumed those responsibil iti es ) . Polarized order pattern With the realization that the current supply of power generation facilities may be inadequate to meet the projected demand for electric power in the next two decades, many utilities worldwide have ordered gas turbine machines and multi-machine electric plants. A very popular power class for machines is large machines with power outputs of 125-180 MW, with a large share of those machines being used in a cogeneration capacity. Many machines will be acquired by independent power producers (IPPs), and the majority is for combined cycle plants involving gas and steam turbines with planı outputs of around 500MW. A second popular class is for machines of about 20-50 MW. The increasing popularity of decentralized CHP systems of 50 MW or less has made the gas turbine machine a very real alternative, as opposed to diesel engines. At the other end of the scale, orders for the lower end of the power band (units 3-10 MW) are also expected to increase about 25-30% during the decade. KEY FACTORS lndependent Power Producers (IPPs) Particularly in the US, but also in other markets, both wholesale and retail, customers are looking well beyond their regional utilities to obtain power. in !his regard, lndependent Power Producers are the most rapidly growing source of power. Deregulation and customer choice will continue to work to drive electricity prices lower and promote the spread of IPPs. in markets outside the US, the privatization of national utilities is expected to continue and will bring the natural forces of competition into play to improve market efficiencies. Fuel cells - the 'next big thing' Public awareness of fuel celi technology has increased substantially. Fuel cells, in fact, might be the next major revolution in power generation, picking up where microturbines will be 'just another form of turbine', only smaller in size, fuel cells will bridge the gap by being a potentially emission-free power source, while having enough capacity to service applications with steady state electrical requirements (as opposed to batteries, which are betler for.back-up sources). Fuel cells are particularly suitable for retail customers such as private households, where the power consumption requirement is 1-2 kW through 3-1 O kW. Fuel cells generale power electrochemically from hydrogen or methane, without combustion and without emissions. Ongoing global ization US utilities will continue to acquire regional electric distribution companies as privatization proceeds in other countries. Conversely, utilities and power generation entities outside the US will seek to acquire interests there. Within Europe, cross-border activity concentrating power production capabilities in fewer sets of hands is speeding up, thanks to the larger and more self-confident European Union, which functions as an excellent framework for companies seeking to optimize their production and distribution capabilities. This trend has been
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