particularly evident in Scandinavia, and is expected to continue there and elsewhere. Search for new energy sources continues The search for new oil sources has intensified, particularly in offshore areas. The Caspian Sea region, the Gulf States, and Venezuela are expected to see their share of world oil markets grow markedly in the next 15 years. Some sources feel that global oil demand wi ll grow 2-2.5% annually for the next 15 years. Coal power conversion picking up speed Coal i s increasingly giving way to natural gas in power and Steam generation in Europe. Despite the continent's long tradition of using coal as the major fuel source for publ ic utilities, the cleaner-burning and more efficient natural gas is used for firing gas turbines of new design and higher efficiencies. Such machines will be procured to repower facilities having older, less efficient units (e.g. Frame 3s,5s). Repowering is cost-effective and avoids many of the permitting and l icensing problems associated with greenfield plants. The coal industry is not disappearing altogether from countries such as Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland or even the UK, but coal is increasingly seen as a major poll utant, which should be phased out. Meanwhil e, nuclear power is being abandoned as an alternative energy form because of the perceived risks involved in storing used fuel-leaving the way open to gas turbines. Although regulated uti l ities own virtually all-potential repowering projects, competitive pressures are expected to encourage non-util ity participation in repowering (e.g. IPPs and so forth). Deregulation, which started in Scandinavia and UK, is picking up speed all across the continent. in fact, the rising competitiveness of the market is driving the shift from coal to natural gas. Pricing The average cost of a turbogenerator in the near term is expected remain about the same as it has been during the past few years (see Table 1 ). Table 1. Turbogenerator pricing Machine size Cost per kW (US $) 1-2 MW $600- $650 5 MW $400- $450 50 MW $275- $300 150 MW $180- $190 250 MW $175- $185 260-340 MW $175- $180 The Companies in order for the electric power generation manufacturers to compete in the future, consortia, joint venture and risk-sharing relations wil l become the main ways forward, especially with reference to machines of over 50 MW. Recent agreements include Alstom Power in lndonesia, GE Power Systems in Russia (and relationships in l ndonesia, Malaysia and l ndia), and Siemens in Russia. Many of the recently concluded agreements incl ude gas turbine manufacture in those nations. Additional agreements are expected, whereby one firm will market another firm's machines, especial ly when the agreement includes machines whose power output supplements the other product l ine. Outlook The util ity and industrial power generation market wil l continue to provide strong stimul us for the production of gas turbine machines, with much of that production going into cogeneration, combined cycle and combined cycle cogeneration faci lities and systems. For the near term, the generation market should be dominated by l arge-scale cogeneration facil ities in the industrial ized nations, notably in Europe, Japan and the US. Traditional non-users of cogenerated power, the oil and gas industry in particular, have begun to accept the concept for a variety of appl ications, incl uding enhanced oi l recovery, platform electric power and refinery electric power generation combined with process systems. The deregulation of the energy industry in the US has resulted in a shift of major industries to cogenerated power. This shift -along with the advancement of technological devel opments and conservation- allows the uti lity industry to delay the time at which it must add large quantities of new 0200 kW-2.99 MW □3.0-9.99 MW ■ 10.0-19.99 MW □ 20-49.99 MW 1 050-124.99 MW E1125 MW+ FIGURE 2. Share of total production of gas turbines for electrical power generation, 2001-2010, by size OAlstom Power OGE OSiemens □ Rolls-Royce ■Solar OUTC □Kawasaki O Manufacturer varies OOthers --- FIGURE 3. Share of total production of gas turbines for electrical power generation, 2001-2010, by company. 'Others' number 12 firms, including Ansaldo, Fiat, Hitachi, Mitsubishi and Vericor baseload power to the electricity grid in North America. in Europe as well as in the US, steam-injected util ity gas turbines should increase in quantity dramatically where combined cycle may be considered too expensive or compl ex to install. Several GE models use or wi ll use the STIG cycle. in the stand-by / emergency power market, the trend is expected to continue shifting to cogeneration, notably in Europe and the Far East, with the US lagging behind. Japan wil l continue to be a strong market for stand-by sets and for new ECOGENERATION WORLD 59
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