cogeneration installations. A look at the numbers The gas turbine-powered electrical power generation market place is composed of distinct submarkets. Some submarkets have distinct subsectors depending on the ultimate use of the machine, such as offshore platforms as opposed to land-based use, and baseload power generation as opposed to peaking duty. Each of the sectors is affected by slightly differing market conditions that become translated into sales activity and eventually into the production of the gas turbine engines / machines. Gas turbine machine production for electrical power generation in the decade extending through the year 201 O is projected by Forecast lnternational to total 18.883 engines/machines, having a production value of just above US$364 billion at 2001 prices turbine-powered electrical power generation marketplace: Technologies - During the next decade, technologies that will rapidly gain acceptance and popularity include coal gasification, pressurized fluidized bed combustion and IGCC. New opportunities - New opportunities abound in the supply and demand for electricity. üne need only look at California's energy problems and note how different it might have been if they had distributed generation on a massive scale-or less cumbersome regulations. Role of society - Society's needs will determine energy's Future. Beyond deregulation, a major issue is how best to regulate the electric industry for the long-term benefit of a nation's people. Nuclear comeback? in the very near future, nuclear power may re - emerge as a serious technology of choice for new electric power generation - and several utilities are now examining the conditions and requirements for investments in new nuclear capacity; a few have drafted plans for new power plants fuelled Table 2. Production of gas turbine engines tor the electrical power generation market, 2001-201 O by nuclear material. Microturbines/ mini turbines: The Gas turbine machine 10-year machine 1 O year machine power class production production market share 200 kW-3 MW* 15639 % 3-10 MW 3280 17% 10-20 MW 326 2% 20-50 MW 4377 23% 50-125 MW 4182 22% 3125 MW 5155 27% Total 1 ,.883 100% •Excludes microturbines and mini-turbines 1 O year value of production (US$million) 1750 8050 1800 53,350 98,050 201 ,500 364,500 1 O year value of production market share <1% 2% <1% 15% 27% 55% 100% world of microturbines/miniturbines is almost on top of us. These machines, from about 20 kW through to about 450 kW, are rapidly available for private homes as well as for small businesses - groups that cannot rely on a public grid. These machines will also be accepted as part of·a power package for commercial vehicles, most notably city buses. Natura! gas: Natura! gas will be preferred fuel for new central and distributed generating capacity into the 21 st century. To 'natura! gas' we should add CNG and LNG. We should, however, put in a weighty caveat: will we have sufficient volumes of reliably sourced natura! gas to fuel all the gas turbines that will be/need to be built? Table 3. Production of gas turbine engines 125 MW and larger tor the electrical power generation market: 2001-2010 Deregulation: Deregulation, along with its accompany i ng regulatory and legislative changes, holds the key to today's widespread innovations in the electric utility industry. Gas turbine machine 10-year machine 1 O year machine 1 O year value of 1O year value of power class production production market production production market share (US$million) share 125-180 MW 3528 19% 123,750 34% '180 MW 1627 8% 77,750 21% Total 5155 27% 201 ,500 55% Fer the gas turbine machine power class category " '125 MW" in Table 2, a further division is offered tor Company survival: The companies that will best succeed in the global power marketplace in the next decade will be those that best understand the implications of the current power game. A few huge companies will lead the industry. Large gas turbine manufacturers that have not discussion and reference in Table 3. (excluding microturbines/miniturbines). in Table 2, the gas turbine-powered electrical power generation marketplace in the 2001-2010 period is broken into power classes. (Note that, in the power classes identified in the Table 2, the word "to" means "up to but not including".) KEY FACTORS, TRENDS AND ISSUES in the decade extending through the year 201 O, Forecast lnternational considers the following to be key factors, trends and issues in the gas ,O ECOGENERATION WORLO secured a position in the microturbine/miniturbine arena will likely be left out of the power generation ballgame. New ways of doing business: The demand for electricity will continue to grow and new power plants will be built to provide the power. However, companies that build and supply the plants will need t adopt to new methods of doing business, including buying/building their own pipelines, acquiring upstream and downstream operations, having computerized systems for fuel supply, and even owning/operating their own CNG/LNG oceangoing mega-tankers. Source:Cogeneration and On-Site Power Production
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