TURKMENISTAN: OIL OUTPUT NUMBERS FALL SHORT OF TARGETS A decade after Turkmenistan's independence, the country's petroleum output remains a fraction of what it was in Soviet imes. in January, Turkmenistan's government reported impressive growth in its energy sector during 2001, with a 9 percent increase in gas output and a 12 percent gain in oil production over the previous year. But the numbers fail far short of targets set by president Niyazov. in December 2000, Niyazov told his cabinet that the country would produce 70 - 75 billion cu. m. of gas in the coming year. The final figure of 51 .3 billion was 27 percent below the government's plan. Similarly, Niyazov predicted that Turkmenistan's oil production would reach 1 O million tons in 2001. The lnterfax news agency reported that the output totaled 3.02 million tons, or 20 percent less. Niyazov has a history of setting unattainable targets, which are eften lorgotten when results are announced. The president has repeatedly promised that Turkmenistan will regain its place as the second largest gas producer in the CIS after Russia and become a strategic supplier lor countries !rom Asia to Europe. But over the pası decade, progress has been slow. in 1993 the government lorecast that gas production would total 130 billion cu. m. by the year 2000. According to a 1997 study entitled "Energy Choices in the Near Abroad" by Robert Ebel of the Genler lor Strategic and lnternational Studies in Washington, Niyazov scaled back the projection in 1996, to 100 billion by 2001. Last year's production was little more than hail of the more modest goal. it was alsa about 40 percent below Turkmenistan's production in 1991, when the country served as a major source of Soviet gas. Turkmenistan's meager oil production has now risen above the 1 991 level, but it is stili only hail of its 1975 peak level. Turkmenistan's GNP has shown strong double-digit gains on paper lor the last three years, culminating in a 20.5 percent growth rate reported in 2001 . But much of the increase has been hollow, since it represents growth in gas production lor Ukraine, which pays only hail of the exports in cash. Despite its recent progress, Turkmenistan is stili struggling to recapture lost ground. According to IMF, the country's economy suffered losses every year from 1991 through 1997. Turkmenistan's troubles in its vital gas sector seem to be due to two problems. The fırst is lack of access and continuous reliance on the Central Asia-Center pipeline. That lormer Soviet network runs north through Russia, making it subject to Moscow's control, as in Soviet days. The creaking system has limited capacity, while Russia has made sure that Turkmen gas reaches only as far as Ukraine, where it can not compete with Russian gas exports to Europe. Niyazov has spent much of the past decade in failed plans lor a pipeline across Afghanistan to Pakistan and lndia. His plans lor a trans-Caspian line to Turkey hane come to nothing because of a dispute with Azerbaijan. The country's only new 201 ECOGENERATION WORLD export route since independence, a pipeline from the western Korpedje fıelds to ıran, has been a disappointment. Since its opening i late 1997, Turkmen gas exports to ıran have repeatedly !ailen short of predictions. Wrangling over prices and the payback lor the construction costs hurt the irade lor several years. Niyazov in January said ıran had requested increase in Turkmen exports to 8 billion cu. m. this year, but he indicated that the country would provide only 5 - 6 billion, according to the official lranian news agency IRNA. in the fırst 1 O months of 2001, only 3.5 billion cu. m. were reportedly sent to ıran. in March 200, the two countries started negotiating a bigger deal lor annual sales of 13 billion cu. m., but the tals soon faded away. A similar fate beleli negotiations with Russia after president Vladimir Putin announced two months later that Moscow would buy up to 50 billion cu. m. of Turkmen gas annually. The yearly volume of sales to Russia has been no more than 1 O billion cu. m. since then. The failures seem to be linked to Turkmenistan's second great problem in the energy sector: the sheer difficulty of dealing with Niyazov. While he has repeatedly sought lor betler terms and higher prices, countries like ıran and Russia have responded by keeping their imports low. Most recently Niyazov has announced new rules lor energy exports that seem likely to draw the potential buyers away. The rules, which took effect on January 1 st, cali lor weekly auctions of gas, oil and electricity, which are to be supervised by an "observer council". The council includes officials from the government, as well as tax and law-enlorcement agencies, the Russian news agency ITAR-TASS said. Under the system, which is apparently aimed at fıghting some undisclosed fraud, potential buyers "must file an application and make a monetary deposit to demonstrate the seriousness of their intentions.11 The regulations state, "if the customer defaults on the purchase contract and the deal is stalled, the seller retains the collateral." in other words, buyers will have to put up a non-refundable deposit if they want to do business with Turkmenistan. The government would keep the money if the deal falls through, assuming the rules are enlorced. it is unlikely that loreign countries and companies will rush to Turkmenistan to trade on such terms. But Niyazov seems determined that investors will do business his way, or not at ali. TÜRKMENİSTAN PETROL ÜRETİMİ HEDEFLENEN MİKTARIN ALTINDA Türkmenistan'ın bağımsızlığa kavuşmasından on yıl sonra ülkenin petrol üretimi Sovyet yönetimi dönemine göre düştü. Niyazov'un koyduğu hedeflere ulaşılamadığı görülürken 2001 yılı için 70-75 milyar metreküp olacağı açıklanan doğal gaz üretimi 51.3 milyar metreküpte kalarak hedeflenenden % 27 oranında düşük bir üretim sağlamış oldu. 2001 yılı petrol üretim hedefi ise 10 milyon ton iken, % 20 düşük bir sonuçla ancak 3.02 milyon tonluk üretim gerçekleşti. Rusya'nın ortasından geçen boru hattının güvenilmez oluşu, bakımsız sistemin sınırlı kapasiteyle çalışması ve Niyazov'un sert koşullar ve yüksek fiyatla satış önerileri ihracatın artışını engelleyen nedenler arasında sayılabilir.
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