20 15 10 5 o Wind Solar PV Fuel Cells Microturbines Figure 2: World capacity of alternative power reductions. Figure 2 shows the current world capacity of each technology. Wind power is the most successful alternative power technology today, with 20 GW of capacity instalied as of 2001. Supported by fixed tariffs and renewable energy targets, wind power will continue its rise. Manufacturing firms already participating include Vestas, Gamesa and NEG-Micon. Major wind farm developers include lberdrola, FPL Group and Xcel Energy. Biomass power includes a wide-range of activities, from conventional burning of wood and crop residues to co-firing with coal, and biomass gasification. Developers include Renewable Energy Corp., Energy Development, and Farmatic. Natural gas-fired microturbines, typically rated for 30-1 00kw each, offer users backup power and CHP on sites with space constraints. The industry predicts efficiency improvements (from 27% today) and capital cost reductions (from US +800/kw today). Capstone Turbine dominates !his market. Companies are seeking to bring fuel celi technologies to market between now and 2004. Proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells are proposed for automotive and home uses, whereas solid oxide and molten carbonate fuel cells are sized for small power plants and CHP. Fuel Celi Energy, Plug Power, Siemens, and Ballard Power are some of the main players. Solar PV is economical today only for remote-power, portable and off-grid applications. Yet, with government support, on- grid rooftop PV is taking off. Oft- hypothesized mass markets await !hin film PV, just commercialized. Major solar PV firms include AstroPower, Sharp, Kyocera, BP, and Siemens. C PROJECTED COST REDUCTIONS: ) -- ---------- The high uncertainty that goes along with any new technologies makes a single forecast of technology costs relevant for only a short period of time after publication date. it seems more useful to consider prices and growth rates under different scenarios of technological progress. Signposts-benchmarks !hat can be used to gauge technological progress- enable anaalysts to determine 4 4 ı ECOGENERATIDrl WORLD the conditions and circumstances !hat would surrond future price decreases. Examples of signposts include commercialization of a technology, ramp- up of manufacturing capability; demonstration programmes, changes in government policies affecting subsidies or tariffs and demonstrated capital cost reductions. Solar PV: Advanced !hin-film silicon PV devices show the most promise for mass production, but these devices currently account for less than a tenth of the PV market and have only recently been commercialized. Thin-film silicon is also less !han conventional silicon PV. Major signposts for solar PV include demonstrations of more efficient thin-films (especially demonstrations by major PV manufacturers), ramp-up of !hin- film manufacturing capability, !hin-film cost improvements (instalied costs of $10.000/kw and !hen $ 500/kw wili be benchmarks for 20012005) and increases in government support for thin-film research and development. Levels of gevenment support for PV, improvement in grid interconnection standards and continued growth of on-grid PV sales overali will also act as important signposts. Wind power: Continuation of government support for renewable energy in any form constitutes the most important indicator of future growth potential. Continued steady growth in wind power sales in America, Europe and Asia will be critical to bringing capital and O&M costs down to competitive levels, which is possible in the 2005-201 O period. Negative indicators will include public opposition to wind instaliations on environmental or aesthetic grounds. Such opposition could endanger government support for wind power, or could threaten near-term growth and related cost reductions. Fuel cells: Commercialization is at an earlier stage !han solar PV or wind power. it appears !here are prospects for major reductions in the present high capital cost of fuel cells after manufacturing scale-up has been achieved. Fuel celi adoption will require improved grid interconnection standards, demonstrated commercial and residential interest in CHP applications and capital cost reductions. in the near term, continued and increased government support for fuel celi commercialization and ramp-up of both residential and commercial scale fuel celi manufacturing will be critical to attaining cost reductions. Use of costly plantium will be a long-range issue for proton exchange membrane (PEM) fuel cells. A useful benchmark might be attainment of$ 2000/kw capital cost at 600 MW/year manufacturing output by 2005. Biomass: Advanced biomass, besi represented by biomass gasification, is at an early stage of development worldwide. Continued government research in !his area, along with growing loca! and national policies supporting renewable energy, will be necessary for successful commercialization of advanced biomass technology. in the meantime, conventional biomass energy technologies using loca! fuels such as wood, agricultural wastes,
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