assume 100% debt financing, reflecting use for residential and small commercial rooftop applications. (Applying !his assumption to microturbines and fuel cells would reduce their costs as well.) O&M costs are based on the present ratio of annual O&M costs to capital costs, as reported by EIA. The medium progress case shows solar PV power costs of $94/MWh, while the rapid progress case results in a figure of $47/MWh. These figures, if attainable, would compare favorably to retail energy costs in some regions. C CCGT: ) -- --------- The CCGT, the preffered techology for new entrant power, continues to show cost and performance improvements. lndeed, development of new CCGT plants promotes the very same values promised by alternative power technology, since the CCGT is cleaner, more efficient and less carbon dioxide insentive than any other conventional technology based on fossil fuels. The CCGT has a low visual profile, can be located close to loads (reducing the need for new transmmission), and is widely used for industrial CHP. Since the CCGT is a fairly mature technology, good information is available about expected improvements in performance and cost. The medium progress case far the CCGT represents assumed capital costs of $500/kw and efficiencies of 53%. These efficiencies are now possible with advanced turbines developed by GE, Alstom, and SiemensWestinghouse. The rapid progress case assumes efficiencies of 57%. The resulting power cost, at $3/MMBtu gas, is $30/MWh and $29/MWh for the two respective cases. 75% is from CHP plants. Germany, France, Austria, Poland, and the Czech Republic ali have large district heating capacities. German has over 10 GW of electrical capacity connected to district heating systems. Much of Europe's district heating is fed by conventional power plants. For example, conventional coal power provides over half the district heat capacity of Denmark, Germany and Poland. in areas where district heat from conventional sources is already widespread, CHP-related alternative power technologies would have to compete with existing systems and opportunities could be more limited as a resul!. Analysis of the market potential for small-site CHP is complicated by the diversity of CHP applications, which is a result of different levels and timings of electric and thermal loads experienced by different buildings in various climates. Large industrial plants have strong CHP potential because their thermal and electric loads are fairly constant and evenly matched. At the other extreme, houses in cold delimates use little electric power during winter nights when their heating needs are stili large and !hey require only a small amount of heat in the summer of hol water. The thermal/electric energy ratio (T/E ratio) is one metric for determining how closely a given technology matches a given user's demand for heat and power. Fuel cells look promising partly because their low T/E ratios experienced by small commercial and residential units such as restaurants, small stores and apartments. However, whatever the T/E ratio value when the thermal and electric loads are poorly corelated, as in the case of houses, CHP has a low value to the customer. (ı N BRIEF: ) - Today's wind turbine generates power at US$52/MWh compared with gas CCGTs at $32/MWh. Because of its cost, maturing technology, and intermittence, wind power growth hinges upon government subsidies and regulation (such as renewable portfolio standards). We forecast world wind capacity will more than double by 2005 to 50-70 GW. - Biomass power can be economic today if local wastes are available and if developers can obtain a gate fee for their disposal. As a renewable energy, biomass alsa benefits from government subsidies. However, waste availablity limits growth with global capacity capped at 70 GW. - At $800/kw, a new microturbine produces power at over $60/MWh. As a recent arrival, microturbines should see cost reductions, possibily up to 50%. Early markets for the devices will be combined heat and power and backup power on sites with weight and space restrictions. - Fuel celi capital costs are now $5000/kw yielding power at $105/MWh. Rapid capiital cost reductions are expected for molten carbonate fuel cells. High plantium costs could inhibit commercialization of proton exchange membrance cells. Niche markets for fuel cells include power quality, combined heat and power and low emissions applications. - The cost of solar PV power is, off the scale (over $400/MWh), but solar PV power is off the first time on-grid sales are dominating. Thin-film silicon, recently commercialized, shows the most potential for cost reductions. Government programmes and subsidies will be the main driver behind solar PV capacity growth. - Because of their cost and relatively small installed capacity base, alternative power technologies do not threaten owners of existing coal, gas and nuclear planı. We forecast that alternative power technologies will account for 55-75 GW of capacity in 2005, or 2.0-2.5% of global installed capacity. Their cost of production remains uncompetitive without significant government subsidies. There is no question that CHP is a potential market for microturbines and fuel cells, including for applications in the industrial, commercial and residential sectors. However, CHP is by no means a 'killer application'. it is highly particular to differences in climate, differing levels of demand for heat and power in various industries and building types, and differing thermal and electric load curves. As their performance and cost improve, a small but growing market will emerge for microturbines, fuel cells and conventional small-sized generation equipment. This will help analysts understand what value consumers in different regions and sectors place on thermal energy and CHP in general. Government subsidies for energy effieciency will alsa play a role. Thus, as with so many other aspects of alternative power, CHP is a question. Source: Cogeneration On-Site Power Production ECOGENERATION WORLD ili..
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